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Iran Scrambles to Avert Israeli Retaliation After Missile Strikes

Iran is urgently engaging in diplomatic efforts across the Middle East, trying to mitigate Israel’s expected response to its recent missile attack. Tehran is particularly concerned that Israel may target its nuclear sites or oil facilities and is seeking support from regional allies to either reduce the scale of the retaliation or offer protection if it occurs.

This concern arises from uncertainty over whether the United States can convince Israel to hold back, especially as Hezbollah, Iran’s key proxy in the region, has been weakened by Israeli military operations in recent weeks.

The U.S. has been in consultations with Israel regarding how it plans to respond, urging restraint and advising against striking Iranian nuclear facilities or oil fields. President Joe Biden recently spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stressing the need for any Israeli action to be “proportional.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, have expressed concerns over a possible attack on Iranian oil facilities, warning that it could have significant economic and environmental consequences for the region.

The U.S. administration fears the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran could escalate into a broader regional conflict that may draw in the U.S. Israel’s recent military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon, which have led to over 1,400 deaths, have disregarded U.S. calls for restraint, heightening these concerns.

Israel’s security cabinet has yet to finalize its decision on how to respond, leaving uncertainty about the country’s next steps. Although the U.S. has been in close discussions with Israel, American officials remain cautious about how much influence they truly have on Israel’s decisions and whether Israel will ultimately align with their advice.

The potential for Israel to target Iran’s nuclear facilities remains a key worry. Israel has been preparing for such an operation for decades, even simulating attacks in military exercises. The country is also suspected of being behind the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and cyberattacks on Iranian nuclear sites, such as the famous Stuxnet virus that disrupted Iran’s Natanz facility.

Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently issued a stern warning, vowing that Israel’s response would be “powerful” and “surprising,” without providing specific details.

Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, have made it clear that they will not allow Israel to use their airspace for a strike against Iran. However, it is unlikely they would directly intervene on Iran’s behalf in the event of an Israeli attack. Jordan has also pledged to protect its airspace from any unauthorized use.

While it is believed that Iran does not want a full-scale war with Israel, the situation remains volatile. The U.S. has been encouraging Tehran to carefully calibrate its response if Israel retaliates, but Iran’s actions remain unpredictable. Different factions within the Iranian government may advocate varying degrees of retaliation based on the scale of Israel’s potential strike.

In addition to seeking support from Gulf states, Iran has reached out to Saudi Arabia, hoping to leverage its influence with Washington to help de-escalate the crisis. Officials from both countries have met multiple times in recent weeks to discuss the situation and explore potential diplomatic solutions.

As the region watches closely, Israel is in a temporary pause as it observes Yom Kippur, the holiest day in Judaism. Although Israeli action is possible, much of the country will remain at a standstill until Saturday, offering a brief respite in the escalating tensions.

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